In recent years, various analysts have attempted to estimate death tolls due to armed conflicts, including for Iraq and Darfur. As results have shown inconsistencies, this has led to vigorous discussions on the best approaches for collecting and analyzing such mortality data. In this context, the WHO Collaborating Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED), in collaboration with the Harvard Humanitarian Initiative (HHI), organized an innovative, inter-disciplinary symposium on the different techniques and applications for the estimation of mortality due to armed conflicts. The aim of the symposium was to strengthen the scientific basis by drawing on recent progress in disciplines such as field epidemiology, demography and forensic anthropology. Although meetings within each discipline have previously been held, the objective of this symposium was to build bridges between these disciplines and develop complementary approaches towards more reliable estimations of mortality in armed conflicts. The symposium brought together forty discussants from thirty organizations representing academia, non-governmental organizations, international organizations, governments and United Nations agencies (see below for full list). A broad range of techniques to document mortality in conflicts were discussed, including survey techniques, prospective surveillance, witness accounts, forensic anthropology investigations, and databases of media reports. The pitfalls and limitations of each technique were discussed, as was the usefulness of the collected data for timely decision making. The symposium clearly opened more doors and posed more questions than could be sufficiently explored over two days. Participants carefully reflected on avenues for collaboration among disciplines, to move past speculative discussions and attempt to put new thoughts to practice. Even though collaborations face significant obstacles between the objectives of different disciplines, ‘Serendipity’, or the act of accidentally discovering something fortunate, is the other side to the coin. Given this intense environment for scientific progress, responsibility for good quality data and the potential impact on human well-being, it is unsurprising that the symposium fostered healthy debate and genuine tensions over the core scientific approaches for mortality estimation. Mutual respect for scientific disciplines is imperative though respectful debates are valuable. Upon reflection, one participant summarized the reality which underlies this tension and hence the basis for such a symposium: ‘there is no incompatibility here; [debate] is the nature of science’. A full report will be available shortly. Organizations represented:
- Amnesty International
- Atrocities Documentation Team for Darfur
- Bandim Health Project, Statens Serum Institut
- Benetech Human Rights Data Analysis Group
- Bloodhound
- Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard University
- Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration, U.S. Department of State
- Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters
- Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung (DIW Berlin)
- Epicentre
- Guatemalan Forensic Anthropology Foundation
- Harvard Humanitarian Initiative
- Health and Nutrition Tracking Service
- Households in Conflict Network
- Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, University of Washington
- Institute for Social and Policy Studies, Yale University
- International Criminal Court
- International Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
- International Rescue Committee
- Iraq Body Count
- Médecins Sans Frontières Belgium, France and UK
- Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute
- Program on Forced Migration and Health, Columbia University
- Royal Holloway College, University of London
- School of Forensic and Investigative Sciences, University of Central Lancashire
- Small Arms Survey
- Special Court for Sierra Leone
- Stanford University
- Statistics Norway
- Trinity College Dublin
- Université catholique de Louvain
- University of Antwerp
- VU University Amsterdam
- World Health Organization
Back to the newsletter's mainpage